2021 Week 5 Preview

Week 4 was another crazy week that didn’t really look like it should have been all that crazy. We are getting close to 2007 levels of weird. Arkansas is ranked 8th right now. I don’t know how to deal with that as an adult because I was in high school the last time they were ranked this high. The unbiased CFB analyst in me thinks this is a gross over-rating of the Hogs who have shown, honestly, not much on offense. BUT, the extremely biased Hog fan in me is saying “absolutely no one in the country wants to play Arkansas right now and that means they should be ranked even higher”. (To be clear, both of these personas find it dumb that Arkansas is ranked lower than Oklahoma.) But I digress. We have some huge matchups this week. Let’s get into it!

My Record: 5-1 last week, 15-9 overall

*A note on how I pick which games to preview because sometimes I look back and wonder: I try to go a bit out of the mainstream just to gain some more insight. There are some games I just don’t know about, but they seem like I should preview them. This week that game is 14Michigan at Wisconsin. I think Wisconsin is bad. I don’t think Michigan is great, but I think they are significantly more complete of a team. Wisconsin is a team I do not want to touch with a ten-foot pole. It might be a great and competitive game, but no thanks. Sometimes I decide to preview group of 5 games I think will be fun and exciting (FAU at Air Force last week) and it isn’t even close. It happens. Also, I know a lot more about the SEC than any other conference, so when in doubt, I will preview an SEC game. I never preview games to try and get an “easy win” for my record. That’s unethical and uncool and the bigger games are easier to pick anyway. I hope you enjoyed this foray into my brain, please exit through the gift shop.

Notable Games
12Ole Miss at 1Alabama
Our first of two top-15 SEC matches of the weekend (even though it will be the later kickoff of the two). Ole Miss is good and fun and exciting, but they have not played anyone so far this season. This will be the first real defense that the Rebel/Black Bear/Land Sharks have played this season. Ole Miss QB Matt Corrall is very, very good. He is the potential difference maker in this game. Alabama is better, but they have to play more than the one quarter like they did against Florida. I expect this game to be closer than the point spread, but I don’t pick against Alabama unless something extreme happens. The winner might be the first one to 50 points.
I am picking Alabama

6Oklahoma at Kansas State
I really don’t have much confidence in either team. Oklahoma is still ranked high based mostly on what they have done in previous years. Their defense is good this season, but the offense is not even close to where it needs to be. The Sooners need a statement win in my eyes to prove they can play offense outside of the Big 12. Kansas State has won this game the last two seasons. I’d like to see Oklahoma score at least 40 points in this game, but I’m not sure they can. They have figured out how to win games at the end and that is important. I’m expecting an ugly game.
I am picking Oklahoma

7Cincinnati at 9Notre Dame
I think Notre Dame is going to come into this game with a chip on their shoulders. The Irish had NINE total rushing yards last week against Wisconsin. But Katie, they beat the Badgers 41 to 13! Well, reader, Notre Dame scored 21 of those points late, and none of them came from the offense (return TD, two pick-sixes). Notre Dame hasn’t really been good, but they have been winning. Cincinnati had a bye last week so I’m not sure how they are going to look in this game. I really hope this game is close and I want Cincy to win with all of my heart. I want to pick them, I really do. But this one is in South Bend. I hope I am wrong.
I am picking Notre Dame

21Baylor at 19Oklahoma State
The Big 12 doesn’t make much sense this season. Baylor has been secretly pretty decent this season (kinda). Oklahoma State has been ok. I am picking Baylor in this game because I think they are more fun and have more ways to win this game. That said, I think this game will come down to a strange play or a special teams’ TD. This one should be a pretty close game the whole way.
I am picking Baylor

Arizona State at 20UCLA
I thought I knew who these teams were and then week three happened. I am much more confident in UCLA. Their loss was a heartbreaking one that came late against Fresno State. Arizona State lost to a very good BYU team, but it wasn’t very close. I’m always worried about Arizona State because they are coached by Herm Edwards. I don’t want to count out the Sun Devils in this game, but UCLA is better.
I am picking UCLA

22Auburn at LSU
Auburn barely survived their home game against Georgia State last weekend. That is not good. Bo Nix played extra bad, and that is something that usually doesn’t happen at home. LSU came out on top against Mississippi State last week and I think they will just be more ready for this game. I don’t really want to say that either team is better in this matchup, but this one is in Death Valley. This could be a close game and could be a little bit weird.
I am picking LSU

8Arkansas at 2Georgia
If you thought this game would be a top-ten matchup that College GameDay would be at, please let me see your time machine because that is the only possible way you could’ve known. I am so excited to go to this game! It will be a super long day (I have been told by UGA fans to get there at 6am to get a parking spot). I finally get to see College GameDay in person. It will be my 11th SEC football stadium. The game itself is just going to be the side dish. I love my Hogs. I think the almost 3TD point spread is not too much. I don’t think this game is going to be all that close. I know Arkansas’s defense is one of the best in the country and I will fight people about that. I do not think our offense is that good. I think KJ is a great leader and a heck of a player. We’ve got great playmakers. Honestly, besides the big plays, I don’t think they are super efficient. Arkansas is where they are because of the fight to bring to every game. It is very possible Arkansas is the best team in the country when it comes to being a team. That is extremely important. I don’t think that will be enough to beat Georgia.

Top 25
12Ole Miss at 1Alabama
8Arkansas at 2Georgia
3Oregon at Stanford
Indiana at 4Penn State
5Iowa at Maryland (Friday)
6Oklahoma at Kansas State
7Cincinnati at 9Notre Dame
10Florida at Kentucky
11Ohio State at Rutgers
13BYU at Utah State (Friday)
14Michigan at Wisconsin
Mississippi State at 15Texas A&M
ULM at 16Coastal Carolina
Western Kentucky at 17Michigan State
18Fresno State at Hawaii
21Baylor at 19Oklahoma State
Arizona State at 20UCLA
22Auburn at LSU
Louisiana Tech at 23NC State
Louisville at 24Wake Forest
Boston College at 25Clemson

Other Games
Tennessee at Missouri
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech
Duke at North Carolina
Nevada at Boise State
Connecticut at Vanderbilt (I am devastated I probably won’t get to watch this game because I’ll be driving home from Georgia. It should be so bad.)
Washington at Oregon State

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Posted in 2021 Season, Football

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CFP Top 25

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Alabama
4. Cincinnati

5. Oklahoma State
6. Notre Dame
7. Ohio State
8. Ole Miss
9. Baylor
10. Oregon
11. Michigan State
12. BYU
13. Iowa
14. Oklahoma
15. Pittsburgh
16. Wake Forest
17. Utah
18. NC State
19. San Diego State
20. Clemson
21. Houston
*23. Kentucky
*24. Louisiana
25. Texas A&M

Dropped Out: 14Wisconsin, 22UTSA

Poll released on Tuesdays

AP Top 25

1. Georgia (12-0,8-0)
2. Michigan (11-1,8-1)
3. Cincinnati (12-0,8-0)
4. Alabama (11-1,7-1)
5. Oklahoma State (11-1,8-1)
6. Notre Dame (11-1)
7. Ohio State (10-2,8-1)
8. Ole Miss (10-2,6-2)
9. Baylor (10-2,7-2)
10. Oregon (10-2,7-2)
11. Michigan State (10-2,7-2)
12. BYU (10-2)
13. Oklahoma (10-2,7-2)
14. Utah (9-3,8-1)
15. Iowa (10-2,7-2)
16. Houston (11-1,8-0)
17. Pittsburgh (10-2,7-1)
18. Wake Forest (10-2,7-1)
19. San Diego State (11-1,7-1)
20. Louisiana (11-1,8-0)
21. NC State (9-3,6-2)
*22. Clemson (9-3,6-2)
23. ARKANSAS (8-4,4-4)
24. Texas A&M (8-4,4-4)
*25. Kentucky (9-3,5-3)

Dropped Out: 15UTSA (11-1,7-1), 19Wisconsin (8-4,6-3)

Bowl Eligible Teams

SEC: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Big 10: Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big 12: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, West Virginia
ACC: Boston College, Clemson, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Pac12: Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, Utah
Independents: Army, BYU, Liberty, Notre Dame
American: Cincinnati, East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, SMU, Tulsa, UCF
Mountain West: Air Force, Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada, San Diego State, Utah State, Wyoming
Sun Belt: Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State, Louisiana, Western Kentucky
C-USA: Marshall, MTSU, North Texas, Old Dominion, UAB, UTEP, UTSA
MAC: Ball State, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Miami (OH), Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan,

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